EXIM conducted a detailed economic impact analysis on transaction case number AP099993XX related to the production of copper concentrate and gold. EXIM conducted this analysis after establishing that new foreign production capacity of the following: copper concentrate, and gold, would be greater than 1 percent of U.S. production of the same, similar, or competing good. EXIM’s analysis determined that neither copper concentrate or gold are currently in global oversupply, and global supply is not likely to exceed global demand for the three years following the foreign buyer beginning production. Additionally, EXIM conducted an analysis of where the new foreign production may compete with U.S. sales. All foreign production for the products are expected to be sold in European and east Asian markets, and the United States does not export significant quantities of copper concentrate or gold to Europe and east Asia. Overall, EXIM estimates around $100 million of U.S. production of competing products could be displaced, in present dollars, by the new foreign production over the 8 years in where the EXIM financing would be in place. EXIM estimated current and follow-on U.S. exports to the project could total some $1.45 billion. In netting the exports of $1.45 billion and the potentially displaced future production of $100 million, EXIM estimates that the net benefit to the U.S. economy would likely be $1.35 billion.
The original analysis was done with different values for current exports and follow on sales ($770 million). Under the original values the exports of $770 million and the displaced future production of $100 million, EXIM estimates that the net benefit to the U.S. economy will be $670 million.